While tensions are rising near the Russia -Ukraine borders, the reality is the EU/NATO are not ready yet to get involved in a direct conflict with Russia that would lead to severe losses. Unnecessarily contentious rhetoric regarding illegality of the Crimea annexation by Russia and misrepresentation of the Russian Federation defensive positions near their borders are just part of false narrative strategy. In the meantime, asymmetric warfare by Kiev, Ukraine with the UK,NATO and USA support and presence in the region/the Black Sea have a high probability via series of high loss provocations and attacks on Donetsk/Luhansk civilians defending their independence from now on per our models.
Risks of a large scale Military escalation&expansion of conflict are subdued until July despite noted numerous high loss provocations from early may 3-5 may 13 and June. More volatility&destructive momentum grow in the 2H2021 from early may into June through this summer into fall and winter.
As hostile statements on illegality of Crimea annexation in 2014 and nuclear war risks statements now appear in the official headlines, let’s review history. The official result from the Autonomous Republic of Crimea was a 97 percent vote for integration of the region into the Russian Federation with an 83 percent voter turnout. The Donetsk republic referendum organizers stated that 2,252,867 voted in favour of self-rule, with 256,040 against, on a turnout of nearly 75%.
The military escalation buildup is expected to grow and culminate in 2022-2024 where a real global war risks are rising significantly.
Near term Powerful explosive provocation, escalation is possible from first half of July 7/5-8, 7/9-11 8/3-8are in focus for SE e Asia Taiwan China the US and Middle East