India B1617 surge &potential next global Sarscov2 wave

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World Affairs

4/26/2021, 10:06:42 AM


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B1617 Coronavirus variant cases have risen sharply in India this month estimated to be around 20% more transmissible than other variants. This creates additional challenge in India due to high population density. Another concern with the B1617 variant is the potential for reduced vaccine efficacy due to multiple mutations. A distinct newly identified lineage B.1.617 possesses mutations D111D, G142D, L452R California valiant , E484Q, D614G and P681R in the spike protein . E484Q, is of most concern potentially contributing to breakthrough infections due to vaccine escape. Some countries like the US suggested donating vaccines such as AstraZeneca that proved to have low efficacy against some variants and certain fatal clotting adverse reactions.

We estimate risk of another potential largest global deadliest covid wave to remain elevated ahead in Q3-4 2021 extending in Q12022 due to B1617, relaxing restrictions, overall SARSCov2 mutability with other new triple mutations escaping vaccines and innate immunity next 4 months and will continue to present growing challenges in east Asia and the world reducing chances of recovery. Moreover, we will see more proof of mRNA vaccine low efficacy, adverse reactions data (cytotoxicity, clotting issues)&new booster vaccines that may present additional layer of problems&stimulate next generation of mutations