Strategic selective defaults on the feds treasury holdings are at high probability in October November as debt ceiling will remain suspended but not extended into through full 2022 and not raised while the fed will be forced to start tapering in November-December 2021.
Raising the debt limit allows the Treasury Department to issue new debt to cover spending that Congress already has authorized.
The debt limit raise is at LOW probability even in December, as the US reaches insolvency point with systematic failure already under way over last two years and convenient Sarscov2 emergence at the same time as repos got unleashed by the Fed in 2019.
The Senate Republicans are expected to block the House bill next week as No GOP senator has committed to voting yes as of September 22.. 10 GOP votes are needed to pass the bill. The Treasury Department will exhaust its borrowing authority in October
Though the Democrats are expected to add an increase in the debt limit into the $3.5 trillion package they are passing thorough reconciliation, that allows them to advance legislation in the Senate with just a simple majority, this effort is at high probability of failure. The democrats are likely not to get required majority vote as some senate democrats will not vote for the full $3.5 trillion package but at best partial insufficient 1trillion package with delays.
We are witnessing slow motion wreck of the systemic failure requiring public suppression ahead of global war unfolding and culminating over next 3 years.